11. - Physio Ankelehnhardt

11 February 2025

Tuesday morning report

Today is the day we start our two storm event. There is a lot to cover and still some conflicting information. I have lots of cards to compare, but also want to simplify the explanation. I hope my highlighted ball points help break down it.

Essentially, the snow today begins from south to north. Much of the central Maryland to the southern PA gets the snow gradually during the afternoon. It will adhere and be most effective through tonight.

Part 1 should be over at Wednesday’s sunrise, but Part 2 will try to develop during the day.

Tomorrow brings another system that can try to develop during the day with a winter mixture, then trend heater with rain.

This weekend we have another storm that may start with snow in Pa, but mostly rain on Saturday afternoon to Sunday.

Polar Air will follow Monday morning and another winter storm could reach us next week.

Winter Storm alarms

Winter Storm Warning reaches through Washington, Annapolis, and as far north in Maryland as Howard County and BWI. Heavier snow and a mixture of gossip tonight are expected.

I-70 and I-68 are about the point that it marks the winter weather counseling with lower snow totals further north.

Highlights (all the expected cards are below)

Snow falls and spreads across the region. It should arrive near and south/west of Washington at noon. Then it will expand to reach our northern areas and to Metro Philadelphia with KL. 16 to 17.
Schools: Not my call! Stickage and road impact can be within the first 1 to 2 hours after the flags arrive. So this can affect southern schools, while northern schools could gamble for a whole day.
TOTALS: A complication of the hot air enclosure could hit heavy snow speeds (over the southern central VA to the southern MD) with 1 to 2 inches per hour. This may include thunder and even mixing or switching to gossip at night, which will affect the snow plains.
The heavier snow zone near and south of Washington until Annapolis gets heavy/wet snow. This packs well, but be heavier to shovel. Add the regions with gossip and if you have a medical condition, it’s time to find a neighborhood child to cloud for you.
All this ends within hours of midnight, so the journey on Wednesday morning depends on how local road crews clear your area.
Delays in the aircraft? I don’t know! I have been surprised when flights start in bad weather and also delayed when they are not bad. Local airports, especially BWI, have good snow removal equipment and plans. That’s its sole purpose! They can fly and land in the snow, but removal can spread the timing of start and landings. It can again spread delays. There is also a factor in the other airports, flights and weather problems themselves….
In the 4-inch or smaller areas this will be a typical snow consistency.

The heavier snow zone near and south of Washington until Annapolis gets heavy/wet snow. This packs well, but be heavier to shovel. Add the regions with gossip and if you have a medical condition, it’s time to find a neighborhood child to cloud for you.

My last call to snowfall

I kept this the same from yesterday and added only the highlights of gossip mixture.

Climate data: Baltimore

Today 11th February

Sunrise at. 07.03

Sunset at. 17.40

Normal low in Baltimore: 26ºF

Record -6f in 1899

Normal high in Baltimore: 46ºF

Record 72ºF 1887

Baltimore seasonal snow

8.9 ”

Drought update

Rainfall deficits on BWI

Ending 2024 = -8.00 ″, since January 1st = -2.00

So we’re down -10.00, ”including last year!

Morning temperatures

Morning surface weather

This complex two -part storm system takes shape.

There is cold and dry air on the north side, and therefore the northern edge of snow may only reach into southern Pennsylvania.

Storm forecast: Tuesday to Thursday

ECMWF model

Closer look

Nam 3 km model dinner for 2 Wednesday

Snapshots

16.00

22.00

Sleet is likely to interfere in central Maryland. Temperatures will be over freezing in the heavy snow zone. This will create very heavy and slushy snow that will compact and affect the last total.

Model comparison

I have mentioned the HRRR model that makes a better job this weekend with the delayed glaze. Here is a comparison. The HRRR model plays the cold and dry air to the north up stronger.

14.00

18.00

22.00

I will focus on Wednesday’s weather separately below